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美债救市升级？特朗普放狠话：必要时动用军队_我的网站

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一 | 　　【导读】特朗普语出惊人，美国军队可能会被用于更大规模的干预，以降低美国国债的收益率　　大家好，简单关注一下美债的小插曲。

二 | 　　美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他甚至可能动用军方对债券市场进行“干预”。

三 | Rajinikanth’s Padayappa has pulled off a box office feat few could have predicted. The 1999 blockbuster, which returned to theatres as part of its 25 year anniversary celebrations, has crossed Rs 12 crore worldwide in its opening weekend, emerging as one of the highest grossing re-releases in Indian cinema.According to trade tracker Sacnilk, the film opened to an estimated Rs 4 crore worldwide on its first day. Instead of following the usual re-release pattern of sharp drops after day one, Padayappa showed steady growth across Saturday and Sunday, pushing its total weekend gross into double digits. Tamil Nadu led the charge, supported by strong collections from overseas markets with sizeable Tamil audiences.The numbers place Padayappa among the most successful re-releases in recent years, an achievement that underlines both Rajinikanth’s enduring star power and the film’s lasting connect with audiences.Nostalgia fuels a rare re-release runTrade analysts attribute the strong performance to a combination of nostalgia and theatrical appeal. Padayappa has long enjoyed repeated television telecasts and streaming viewership, yet the big screen experience appears to have drawn audiences in large numbers. Many theatres reported near full occupancy during evening and weekend shows, driven by fans revisiting a film that defined an era. The film’s sustained run is particularly noteworthy because re-releases typically depend heavily on opening day curiosity. In this case, repeat footfalls and strong word of mouth helped Padayappa buck the trend. Younger viewers, who knew the film largely through pop culture references and social media clips, also turned up in significant numbers, contributing to the growing collections over the weekend.Originally released in 1999, Padayappa went on to become the highest grossing Tamil film of its time. Its re-release success reinforces its standing as one of Tamil cinema’s most influential commercial films.The legacy of Padayappa and NeelambariDirected by KS Ravikumar and produced by Rajinikanth under his Arunachala Cine Creations banner, Padayappa featured an ensemble cast that included Sivaji Ganesan, Soundarya, Ramya Krishnan, Radha Ravi, Nassar, Manivannan and Abbas. The film blended family drama with spectacle, anchored by Rajinikanth’s commanding performance.Ramya Krishnan’s portrayal of Neelambari remains a cultural milestone. The character’s pride, rage and emotional volatility continue to resonate, often cited among the most iconic antagonists in Indian cinema. Adding to the renewed interest around the film, Rajinikanth recently revealed that he has discussed the possibility of a sequel told from Neelambari’s perspective, exploring her belief that she was wronged and her desire for revenge. AR Rahman’s soundtrack also remains a key element of the film’s appeal, with its songs continuing to receive thunderous responses during the re-release screenings.As Padayappa continues its victorious return, its box office performance stands as proof that some films do more than age gracefully. They reclaim the spotlight when given another chance on the big screen.Also Read: Padayappa Returns: Why Rajinikanth’s Titan of a Film Still Roars。这一表态出现在记者追问美国财政部长贝森特为压低飙升的美债收益率所采取的措施时，不过特朗普的回答令人颇为困惑。　　美国财政部周三出乎华尔街意料地宣布，从下个月开始，将把长期美国国债的回购规模“至少提高一倍”。这一举措最初推动长期美债价格大幅上涨，使30年期美债收益率从几天前创下的19年高位明显回落，但此后收益率又重新走高。

四 | 　　周五下午，在登上“空军一号”前，特朗普在停机坪接受记者提问。一名记者问他，是否是他要求贝森特出手干预债券市场，以及这一行动是否出自他的主意。　　特朗普回答：“没有，完全没有。他是个非常有能力的人，是他自己想这么做的。他很擅长这个。他对债券和利率有很好的感觉，是一种非常好的天然直觉。然后他就这么做了？对。”　　记者随后指出：“但从那以后，收益率又涨回去了。

五 | 你有没有和他讨论过其他形式的干预？他接下来还会采取其他措施吗？”　　特朗普回答：“我们有很多种干预方式，这只是其中一种。”　　随后他补充道：“终极的干预手段，是我们的军队。如果我们必须使用军队，我们就会使用。”　　贝森特周四接受采访时曾表示，特朗普政府拥有一个用于稳定债券市场的“大型政策工具箱”，但他拒绝具体列举还有哪些可用手段。　　不过，在特朗普发表上述言论后，目前甚至已经很难判断，他和贝森特所说的究竟是不是同一个“工具箱”。　　近期美债收益率持续上升，市场主要担忧包括美国财政赤字、不断膨胀的政府债务、高企的通胀，以及科技公司为大规模投资人工智能而掀起的发债潮。

六 | 　　当前市场讨论的焦点是：如果美债收益率再次走高，贝森特还会动用哪些工具？以及如果美国财政部的“火力”存在上限，美联储是否最终会被迫出手。　　分析师表示：“财政部干预面临的根本问题是，这需要花钱。目前，财政部主要是通过减少长期债务、增加短期债务的方式为这些操作融资。但由于联邦债务总额受到债务上限约束，财政部最终还是会耗尽弹药。

七 | 如果财政部耗尽火力，而收益率再次飙升，美联储可能会感到不得不出手购买这些债券。

八 | 如果这种情景发生，那么美联储主席沃什关于缩减美联储资产负债表的内部讨论，可能就完全失去现实意义。美联储非但无法退出财政领域，反而可能被进一步拖进去。

九 | ”　　财政部下一步可能采取的措施之一，是调整长期国债的发行结构。　　美国财政部最近发布的季度债务发行政策声明中，对相关措辞进行了调整，由此引发市场大量猜测：财政部官员可能考虑减少最长期限国债的拍卖规模，同时，如果未来需要增加发债，则更多集中在融资成本更低的短期和中期国债。　　法国资产管理公司Amundi全球固定收益首席投资官格雷瓜尔·佩斯克表示，美债回购虽然能够向市场释放信号，但仅靠回购并不足以扭转收益率的整体方向。　　他还表示，为了巩固美联储抗击通胀的信誉，美联储可能仍需要加息。　　高盛集团策略师也提出了类似观点。

十 | 他们认为，无论财政部采取多少措施，真正能够压低美债收益率的最好办法，还是让通胀降下来。　　这一问题也将成为美联储主席凯文·沃什下周在堪萨斯城联储杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上发表主题演讲时必须面对的重要议题。　　目前，利率互换市场显示，交易员预计美联储在9月会议上加息的概率约为40%，而市场直到今年年底前后才完全计入一次加息。