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一 | 　　数据来源：平湖市人民政府　　炎炎夏日，浙江平湖的羽绒服却“爆单”了。 India and emerging market economies (EMEs) will gain “substantially,” reckoned experts, as Japan-based Nomura Holdings predicts “multiple recessions” for the world’s major economies over the next 12 months.,Nomura Holdings on Monday noted that the US, Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will fall into recession amid tightening government policies and rising living costs.,“A recession in developed countries can result in heightened interest of Foreign Portfolio Investors towards emerging markets, including India, which is the fastest-growing major economy in the world”, Pranav Haldea, managing director of Prime Database, told Sputnik.,Haldea blames the US Fed rate hike aimed at controlling the rising living costs for the current capital outflow from emerging markets, saying interest rates in the US have a huge bearing on FPI flows.,Foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth $6.4 billion in June — the highest net outflow in over two years. Foreign investors withdrew $27.9 billion from Indian equities in the first six months of 2022.,“Once the current rate hike cycle shows signs of abating, FPIs shall again look at emerging markets with renewed interest”, Haldea reckoned.,Economists observe Fed missteps such as the delayed response to inflation, which the latter labeled “transitory” until March this year, hamper economic activity in the US. The US recorded 8.6 percent inflation in May, the highest in four decades.,Massive inflationary pressure is also hindering growth in European economies such as Germany, Spain, and France, which registered 7.6, 10, and 5.2 percent price rises in May, respectively. Inflation in the UK is running at 9.1 percent.,US Unlikely to Avoid Severe Recession if Fed Hikes Interest Rates Too Quickly to Cool Inflation2 July, 02:42 GMT,Economists warn of spreading high inflation beyond commodities to services items, rentals, and wages.,Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying wrote in a research note that there are increasing signs that the world economy is entering a “synchronized growth slowdown, meaning countries can no longer rely on a rebound in exports for growth”.,Professor Manoj Pant, a prominent economist and vice chancellor at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, said that emerging markets would also be affected by a decline in trade; still, some factors may lessen the impact.,“The factors which are operating in our favor are that the bulk of the buying consumers are located in India, and the current geopolitical situation means a lot of countries are looking at India not as a complete replacement, but as a possible third area apart from China and Vietnam”, Pant told Sputnik.,Nomura forecasts a prolonged recession in the United States and a much deeper slump in Europe if Russia entirely cuts off gas to the region.,Despite the global headwinds, the Indian economy is predicted to grow at 7.2 percent in the current fiscal, much higher than any other major global economy.,Experts advise Indian policymakers to capitalize on the structural changes that began in 2016-17 onwards but that were interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.,“The world is moving much more towards services than manufacturing. China’s boom was based on manufacturing, the services boom will have to be in India. So the question is how well we are able to take account of that. So depending on us, we can actually gain substantially, if we are ready”, Pant added.,However, Pant labeled the new forecast as a continuation of the 2019 recessions, as there has been no boom registered anywhere in the world since then.,China infuses immense hopes to all the developing economies, as economists bet on demand from the world's second-largest economy to mitigate negative impacts, even though they face slowing export demand from the US and Europe.。前不久，全国最大的单品类羽绒服专业市场——平湖·中国服装城举办订货会，吸引超万名国内外客商，订单额突破6亿元。有老板直呼，这是近20年来最忙的一回。　　当前，一些产业苦于应对需求不足，一些地方困于动能转换阵痛。透视浙江平湖这场反常的羽绒服热潮，或许能为传统产业向新向优、中小城市重塑优势提供启示。　　反季买羽绒服是消费新趋势，更是产业新机遇。　　当下，我们要重视总需求不足的突出矛盾，也不要忽视了细分需求的增长潜力。点开社交软件，能看到大量反季消费的帖子。登山、跨南半球旅行、冰雪运动等，都为“冬衣夏穿”提供了新场景。　　如果停留于传统思维，羽绒服不过是冬日御寒装备。但如果敢于打破陈规，其完全可以蜕变为多元审美、彰显个性的时尚符号。今年，平湖羽绒服在款式上突出轻量化、功能化、时尚化，在选色上也跳出往常的“黑白灰”，上新奶油杏、焦糖棕等流行色，耳目一新的设计让产品更受青睐。　　这启示我们，敏锐捕捉消费变化，竞争再饱和的老产业里也能找到新商机。　　从外贸服装代工厂到全国最大的羽绒服生产供应基地，平湖也走过弯路。　　上世纪80年代，平湖大量承接外贸订单。“全球百件衣，平湖有其一”，规模是做大了，但潜台词是“什么品类都做”。10多年前，当地办起平湖服装城，结果产品繁杂、款式雷同，消费者不买账。　　时代在变，机遇也在变，老路不会一直好走，机遇也不会自动变成优势。“与其铺开一张网，不如磨尖一根针。”当地在试错与比较中重新校准产业方向，主动砍掉其他品类走“窄路”，最终培育出世界闻名的羽绒之都。　　今天，中国消费品数量和种类已经极大丰富。对一家企业、一个地方来讲，想在市场的“热带雨林”中卡住生态位，过去的“大而全”策略很难再奏效，必须练就绝活才能争得阳光雨露。　　这启示我们，做大一堆不如做精一个。中国的产业分工已转向高度专业化、精细化。

二 | 与其挤千军万马的“红海”市场，不如集中精力走“窄路”，另辟蹊径走新路。　　令人意外的是，平湖其实不产羽绒，可见这座小城的产业优势并非“得天独厚”，而是来自“无中生有”。

三 | 再看平湖所处的嘉兴，海宁不产皮革，却做成了家喻户晓的皮革城；桐乡不产羊毛，却是全国最大羊毛衫集散中心。从嘉兴到义乌，“无中生有”是浙江不少城市创造商业传奇的密码。　　继续把视野放宽。在新疆塔里木河畔，通过水土改良，沉睡的盐碱地竟化作养殖海产的“蓝色粮仓”。在宁夏中卫，成片光伏板屹立在腾格里沙漠，以算电协同让大漠生金。“无中生有”，让大量过去欠缺开发价值的土地“长”出新产业，重构新优势。　　再看回平湖这件羽绒服，“无中生有”里有大智慧。“无”是对自身短板劣势的精准洞悉，想要摆脱困境，首先就要敢于直面困难，找出破题点。“有”并非凭空臆想，而是立足自身实际进行创造性转化，通过主动作为将潜在机会变成现实。　　百年变局加速演进、科技革命和产业变革加速发展，如何转化危机、激活潜能？　　平湖的产业实践里，有点石成金的创新思路、敢闯敢干的改革精神，更有不认命、不服输的进取心态。