A | 1月14日，韩国宪法裁判所（即宪法法院）对弹劾尹锡悦一案进行第一次正式开庭审理。这次庭审，尹锡悦可以出庭自我辩护。 JAKARTA, Indonesia -- Thousands of noisy, flag-waving political supporters created a celebratory atmosphere outside Indonesia’s election commission Thursday as candidates started registering for next year’s elections in the world’s third-largest democracy.More than 2,400 police were deployed around the General Election Commission compound in Jakarta and roads were blocked around the building, where traffic was snarled as the presidential and vice presidential candidates arrived.Anies Baswedan, an opposition candidate and former Jakarta governor, was the first to register for the presidential race, alongside his running mate, Muhaimin Iskandar, chairman of the National Awakening Party or PKB.Ganjar Pranowo, the governing party’s candidate for president and former Central Java governor, registered with his running mate, Muhammad Mahfud, the current top security minister. The election to succeed President Joko Widodo, who is serving his second and final term, is shaping up as a three-way race.Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who lost to Widodo in the last two presidential elections, is expected to run but it's not clear when he will register as he hasn't announced his running mate.The deadline for candidates to register for the legislative and presidential elections on Feb. 14, 2024, is next Wednesday.Opinion polls forecast a close race between Subianto and Pranowo, while Baswedan is consistently in third place.Baswedan was education and culture minister before Widodo removed him from the Cabinet in 2016.He was known as a progressive Muslim intellectual but religious identity politics in the 2017 election for Jakarta governor were seen as distancing him from moderate Muslims. His choice of Iskandar is viewed as an attempt to rebuild that support.Iskandar's PKB party has strong ties with Indonesia’s largest Islamic organization, Nahdlatul Ulama, which boasts over 45 million members.“We bring the idea of change to be felt by families in Indonesia. We want basic needs to be affordable. Farmers will have a more prosperous life, fishermen will have a more prosperous life. We want there to be equality of opportunity," Baswedan said at a news conference at the General Election Commission on Thursday. "The basic idea is that change brings equality and justice.”Some of Baswedan's supporters who gathered at the election commission building were from groups that held mass protests in 2016 against Jakarta’s ethnic Chinese Christian governor, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, who was imprisoned on blasphemy charges after quoting the Quran in a speech. Baswedan galvanized street protests by hundreds of thousands and capitalized on the controversy in his successful run for governor.Baswedan is not expected to use religious identity politics in next year's election, said Arya Fernandes, head of the Department of Politics and Social Change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Indonesia.“At the national level the people’s rejection of the use of identity or the use of religious-based narratives in elections and politics is actually high. So if there is any thought for any candidate to do that, I think it will backfire,” Fernandes said Thursday.Pranowo was a national legislator for the governing Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDIP, for 10 years before being elected in 2013 for the first of his two terms as Central Java governor.Widodo praised Pranowo as a leader who is close to the people and “always goes down to the grassroots and is very ideological.” “We want to develop Indonesia faster and continue the good things that have been done by the current government, to fix what is not good enough and to leave the bad ones,” Pranowo said in a news conference.Pranowo has faced criticism and a backlash from soccer fans after FIFA earlier this year stripped Indonesia of its right to host the Under-20 World Cup.He was among those who had voiced opposition to Israel’s participation in the tournament. Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim-majority nation and does not have diplomatic relations with Israel. Subianto has focused his ultra-nationalistic campaign on what he sees as Indonesia’s weakness in the world relative to its vast land area rich in natural resources and a population of more than 270 million.A longtime commander in Indonesia’s Kopassus special forces, Subianto was discharged from the military in 1998 after Kopassus soldiers tortured activists who opposed dictator Suharto, his father-in-law. He went into self-exile in Jordan before returning and founding the Gerindra Party in early 2008.In the past he worked closely with hard-line Islamists to undermine his opponents, but lost to Widodo in the 2014 and 2019 elections, which were marred by dirty campaigning and wild internet rumors. Subianto refused to accept both election results but decided to join the Cabinet after Widodo offered him the defense minister position in a bid for unity.___Follow AP's Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific。但尹锡悦方面在12日就明确表示，尹锡悦将不出席，由他的律师代理出庭，表达立场。尹锡悦一直声称自己宣布戒严有正当理由，他为什么要放弃出庭自我辩护的机会？尹锡悦方面的理由，总统的人身安全得不到保障。尹锡悦律师团的律师尹甲根表示，高级公职人员犯罪调查处（公调处）和警察厅国家侦查本部，一直“想以非法方式，执行非法、无效的拘留令”，让总统的人身安全令人担忧。他说，尹锡悦总统出庭的前提是，人身安全和警卫问题得到解决，只要解决了安全问题，他将随时出庭受审。
B | 公调处在申请到首尔西部地方法院的拘留令后，曾于1月3日试图逮捕尹锡悦，结果被总统警卫处瓦解。随后在第一个拘留令到期后，公调处又向该法院申请了第二个逮捕令。也就是说，目前公调处还在尝试逮捕尹锡悦。但因为尹锡悦的总统官邸加强了防卫，犹如一座堡垒，公调处和警方也无可奈何。尹锡悦阵营的意思是，如果尹锡悦去宪法法院进行自我辩护，公调处和警方可能借机逮捕他。在这种情况下，尹锡悦阵营决定，安全第一，放弃第一次辩护的机会。其实，这背后还是双方关于针对尹锡悦的逮捕令的合法性之争。尹锡悦方面坚持认为，公调处的管辖法院是首尔中央地方法院，不是首尔西部地方法院，所以就算申请逮捕令，也不能由首尔西部地方法院签署。尹锡悦方面还向宪法法院提出上诉，要求审查、裁决这个逮捕令的合法性。但公调处认为自己的程序合法，是尹锡悦非法。
C | 当然，尹锡悦拒绝出庭的一个策略也可能是，想借缺席宪法法院审理，向公调处施压。
D | 针对尹锡悦的弹劾和调查，有两条战线，一条是公调处试图拘留、审查尹锡悦。另一条是宪法法院审理。宪法法院的审理，应该比公调处的逮捕令更具权威性和合法性，如果能说服宪法法院，认为公调处的逮捕威胁，已经令尹锡悦无法出庭，妨碍了宪法审理，就有可能进一步打击公调处的逮捕计划。而且在这个策略背后，还有更深层次的原因。
E | 即尹锡悦和执政党希望以拖待变，在所有问题上都要争一争，拖一下时间，希望借时间改变局面。
F | 这个策略目前看来也有一定效果。1月10日韩国的一份民调显示，虽然仍然有60%的受访者认为尹锡悦应该遭到弹劾，但是执政党国民力量党和在野党共同民主党的支持率却发生了令人注意的变化。根据这份民调，国民力量党的支持率为34%，比三个星期前上升了10%，而共同民主党支持率为36%，比三个星期前下降了12%。两党的支持率回到戒严前的情况。这说明，就算尹锡悦被弹劾被解职，执政党的局面也比三个星期前好转了很多。这就可以看出，尹锡悦和执政党“拖”的策略有效果。在野党非常着急想逮捕尹锡悦，尽快解决事件也有道理。当然，尹锡悦第一次庭审不出庭影响不大。但安排在16日进行的第二次庭审中，如果他还不出庭，那么宪法法院将进行缺席审理。因此尹锡悦阵营在宪法审理这一关，还有什么招数可以继续拖，也很值得观察。
G | 文丨羊城晚报国际评论员 钱克锦编辑：林丽爱 来源：羊城晚报•羊城派。
H |
Current article:http://www.zangjiwuqihuncongcherua.cyou/xtc5u9/20260826/8989461.html
Published on:07:10:39
